The global capital markets have been depressed recently due to the rebounding of the epidemic in Europe. The three major INDEXES of THE U.S. Stock market rebounded after a sharp drop on Monday, with U.S. oil down 4.38% and Brent down 3.96%.Commodity trend is depressed, black futures continue to fall recently, the decline has slowed down slightly today, most of the spot weakened, steel lock price 3320 yuan/ton, the market transactions cautious.
The market is a mixed bag
Positive aspects:
Good a
The central bank has a net injection of $350 billion
The central bank continued to conduct large-denomination reverse repos today, including 200 billion yuan of seven-day reverse repos and 150 billion yuan of 14-day reverse repos.Since there is no reverse repurchase maturity today, a net investment of 350 billion yuan has been realized.It is helpful to relieve the pressure of payment and inter-saving fund demand of government bond issuance at the end of the quarter, so as to maintain the stability of market liquidity.
Good 2
The turnover of building materials shall remain above 200,000 tons
In spite of the recent sharp decline in futures, the demand for building materials in the spot market is still supported. The trading volume of building materials nationwide remained above 200,000 tons, reaching 213,100 tons on Monday. There is still room for improvement in the supply and demand structure.
Negative aspects:
Bad one
Mortgage tightening signs, affecting housing market expectations
Since the middle of July, the purchase policy of many local governments has been tightened. Meanwhile, the “345 new financing regulation” has aroused heated discussion in the market.Recently, there is news that the second and third-line mortgage tightening phenomenon, some Banks even suspended the mortgage business.
According to incomplete statistics, the down payment ratio of second homes was collectively raised in Shenyang and Wuxi, and the benchmark interest rate of first home loans rose by 20% in a number of Banks in Wuxi, while the lending rate of second home loans generally rose by 30%. Moreover, the lending speed was generally relatively slow, and some Banks even stopped lending.Mortgage tightening will further affect the market expectations of the property market, the real estate market to pull the pressure of a slowdown.
Bad two
The purchase price of scrap steel has been continuously reduced
With the weaker prices, profit pressure, raw end scrap steel trend continues to decline.According to the market feedback, 22 hebei steel scrap price cut 20-30, Shandong Rizhao steel scrap purchase price cut 30, the current jiangsu steel scrap purchase price is relatively stable, if the composite price continues to weaken, scrap still has room to fall.
Futures closed down slightly, most of the weak spot
Futures narrow today, the shape of a hammer out of the line, short – term support.Iron ore was down 16 at 772.5, coke up 7 at 1967 and coking coal up 0.5 at 1271.5.
Spot, most on demand procurement, transaction enthusiasm is not high, merchants shipping mainly.
In 16 of the 24 rebar markets, the average price of 20mmHRB400E fell 10-30 yuan/ton, which was down 12 yuan/ton compared with last trading day.
Among the 24 hot coil markets, 19 markets fell 10-50, and the average price of 4.75 hot rolled coil was 3916 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day.
12 of the 24 markets in the middle board fell 10-20, 14-20mm average price of the middle board 3980 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton compared with last trading day.
In conclusion, the September peak season does not affect market confidence.Repeated outbreaks abroad, steady economic growth in China, and the tightening of monetary policy in the second half of the year have all brought some pressure to the capital market in the near future.However, in the short term, monetary policy has not changed and frequent large reverse repos have stabilized market liquidity. At the same time, in terms of supply and demand, production growth is slowing down, demand is still pulling, supply and demand still have room for improvement, and steel prices are limited to fall.Steel prices are expected to stabilize tomorrow in a small decline.(Source: Sinosteel)
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